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The Changing Financial World

By Alan Watson - Topics: common reporting standards, France, Investments, ISAs
This article is published on: 18th October 2019

18.10.19

It was December 15th 1996; my wife and I were happy to be in Morzine and were enjoying dinner at hotel Les Airelles. Jean-Claude, the owner, was very attentive – we were his only guests! Heavy snow was falling, so the drive back to our home in Le Biot was a slow one, spotting just one other vehicle parked suspiciously in St Jean D’Aulps, the Gendarmes, who looked bemused that a Dutch plated car should mess up the untouched snow cover.

During Christmas I worked as usual in my IFA business covering Europe, but it was a stress free time; international clients had little to bother them, the main concern being market direction. The FCA did not exist; tax people were only after the big fish; even the Financial Ombudsman, for complaints, was years from formation; regulation was unheard of; QROPS transfers were an age away. The Isle of Man, Guernsey, Jersey, and of course Switzerland were the favourite hiding centres. Clients were happy to deposit large sums resulting from their global company contracts. Banks happily took in and paid out in cash, accepted transfers from third parties, and asked minimal questions to new arrivals in the beautiful French Alps; they were simply hungry for this amazing new flow of business. The financial world was a relaxed place, where large sums of “tax free” money could be transferred to the Notaries, who would inform the local land sellers that they had become wealthy; keys were given, dreams were realised and that much expanded supermarket just out of town saw the wine shelves emptying like never before. Travel businesses sprung up with sexy names like, “Utah snow and sun”, and their chalets were full the whole winter. The French tax people started to scratch their heads. Not only were local people driving back and forth through the Swiss border every day, but now a new irritation had arrived in town and some serious checking was necessary. The French Fisc. suddenly had many more employees, serious computer power, and somebody could apparently speak ENGLISH !

It’s now October 2019, my wife and I still love to eat in Morzine, but things have changed. Conversations with my clients all over the Rhone Alpes region take on a very different and focused tone. A global directive of information exchange requirements has shaken up the old world called CRS, “Common Reporting Standard”, which means the UK will exchange all financial, bank account, insurance policy and investment account information with France. Even that renowned haven of Swiss Private Bankers are happy to flood Europe’s tax offices with full financial disclosure information on former residents and clients. If that’s not enough, I regularly hear of clients being pestered by cold calling IFAs based in Paris, the south of France, even Dubai. The pleasure of being seen on social media! But now the approach is somewhat different, we have tight European regulation, or do we?

Making life changing investment decisions is a delicate operation. If somebody tells you they are part of XX group in Gibraltar, but due to “flexible” European financial regulation, they can passport, operate in France – beware: if things go wrong the UK, FCA or French regulator Orias will be unable to help you. A fully regulated French company holds the correct licenses and your chosen adviser should know French rules and regulations, preferably from many years experience in the region. Some individuals choose to keep a leg in the old country, just in case, but this half-half decision could cost you dearly. “Is a UK ISA tax efficient in France?” “My money is 100% Sterling, so impossible to move it over here.”

Your chosen IFA should know a great deal. Test their knowledge on markets, tax issues, currency movements/history, inheritance. Can they introduce you to competent local professionals? Moving from one country to another is a big step. Do make sure all fits into place, you should enjoy this wonderful region for years to come.

How to invest – Multi-asset Funds – Investing Made Simpler

By Emeka Ajogbe - Topics: Belgium, Branch 23 investments, Investment Risk, Investments, multi assets
This article is published on: 16th October 2019

16.10.19

I have spoken about asset allocation and rebalancing and their affect on your investments. An-other strategy that is available to you is multi asset fund management.

You may have heard (read) that I have mentioned that here at The Spectrum IFA Group, we favour the ‘multi asset fund’ route of investing. But, what is that?

MULTI ASSET FUNDS

Multi asset funds provide you with access to multiple funds and asset classes through a single fund, managed and monitored by dedicated experts on your behalf. This type of fund can increase the potential for diversification and help reduce the overall level of risk.

Choosing the right funds and building a diversified portfolio can be extremely difficult. The options available to you are almost limitless, with tens of thousands available to investors in Europe alone.

Generally speaking, it is highly unlikely that a single fund manager is capable of delivering consis-tent outperformance, year on year. Making the right choice for a portfolio and then refining it and rebalancing it over the years takes time, information and skill. Therefore, fund managers need to be monitored to ensure they remain at the top of their game – and replaced when they are not. The resources and/or expertise to do this properly can be time consuming and expensive. There-fore, multi asset funds can play a valuable role in part or all of your investments.

All multi asset funds offer a convenient way to access a wide range of fund managers and asset classes. Spreading investments across a wide range of managers and assets reduces the proba-bility of a fall in value across the whole portfolio.

At the same time, multi asset funds that are designed to target different risk levels make it simple to adapt a portfolio to suit your changing circumstances. For example, if you have no need to ac-cess your savings any time soon, then you are likely to be able to take more risk than clients who are nearing the time when they do need to access their money.

How to invest – Rebalance Your Investments

By Emeka Ajogbe - Topics: Belgium, Branch 23 investments, Investment Risk, Investments, Netherlands
This article is published on: 9th October 2019

09.10.19

I previously discussed how asset allocation is an investment strategy that can limit your exposure to risk. As you get further along your journey of being an investor, you need to understand how to rebalance your portfolio to keep it in line with your investment objectives.

Rebalancing is bringing your portfolio back to your original asset allocation mix. This may be necessary because over time, some of your investments may become out of alignment with your investment objectives. By rebalancing, you will ensure that your portfolio has not become overexposed to one asset class and you will return your portfolio to a comfortable and more acceptable level of risk.

For example, let’s say that your risk tolerance determined that equities should represent 60% of your portfolio. However, after recent market fluctuations, equities now represent 75% of your portfolio. To re-establish your original asset allocation mix, you will either need to sell some of your funds or invest in other asset classes.

There are three ways you can rebalance your portfolio:

1. You can sell investments where your holdings are overexposed and use the proceeds to buy investments for other asset classes. With this strategy, you are essentially taking the profits that you have made and reinvesting it into a more cautious fund.

2. You can buy new investments for other asset categories.

3. If you are continuing to add to your investments, you can alter your contributions so that more goes to the other asset classes until your portfolio is back into balance.

Before we rebalance your portfolio, we would consider whether the method of rebalancing we agree to use would entail transaction fees or tax consequences for you.

Depending on who you speak to, some financial experts advise rebalancing at regular intervals, such as every six or 12 months. Others would recommend rebalancing when your holdings of an asset class increase or decrease more than a certain preset percentage. In either case, rebalancing tends to work best when done on a relatively infrequent basis.

Shifting money away from an asset class when it is doing well in favour of an asset category that is doing poorly may not be easy. But it can be a wise move. By cutting back on current strong performers and adding more under performers, rebalancing forces you to buy low and sell high.

To discuss further how rebalancing can help your existing investments, please contact me either by email emeka.ajogbe@spectrum-ifa.com or phone: +32 494 90 71 72.

Interest rate outlook and what it means for your investments

By Barry Davys - Topics: Barcelona, Interest rates, Investment Risk, Investments, Spain
This article is published on: 1st October 2019

01.10.19

I had a very nice dinner a few days ago with an investment manager I have known for 12 years. We meet regularly and he is one of the investment managers in London that we, as a company, use for some of our clients. So we know each other professionally quite well and one of us always acts as devil’s advocate to the other one’s position in discussions. It is a great way of getting your point of view tested. Yes, we did talk about Brexit, but the more important issue was the fact that long term interest rates are likely to stay low for a very long time in Spain and in Europe. So here are some thoughts about what these low interest rates mean for our savings and investing.

First, Brexit. Brexit is on everyone’s lips and quite understandably so. Whether you love it or hate it, no one seems to be able to work out what is going to happen. I admit to not being able to work out where it will end. The Brexit outcome is incredibly important to us as individuals and businesses. Yet what about for our savings? Britain is the sixth largest economy in the World. Sounds important. According to the World Bank, the World economy is $86 Trillion. Britain’s economy is $2.8 Trillion. So Britain represents just 3.26% of the World economy. Which means we still have 96.74% of the World economy where we can invest!!!

Perhaps the more important story for savings and investments is the impact of very low interest rates that could stay low for decades. My dinner guest gave good insight into the future of low interest rates. This insight is important to us as individuals with savings and investments.

In October 2007, interest rates in the UK fell from 5.5% to 0.5% in May 2009. Interest rates in Europe followed a similar path. The ECB in July 2007 cut its interest rate from 5.25% to 0.75% in May 2009. The ECB rate has now fallen to just 0.25%.

Will low interest rates stimulate the economy? Yes, it will, but not enough to get economies back on track. Mario Draghi, the current President of the ECB, says central banks changing interest rates will help, but Governments have to spend more too for sufficient economic growth to happen. As an example, Germany has been taking a lot of stick because it has not been spending. The amount it collects in taxes etc is equal to the amount it spends.

ECB

This is the German Government policy. This is a sensible policy unless parts of the country break down and need repairs. Two items that need repair in Germany are the military and the transport infrastructure.

The military, if the stories are to be believed, did not have one single usable helicopter earlier this year. Roads in Germany need repairs, including bridges. Spending money on these road repairs not only give jobs to workers and their companies but also helps the German transport system to run smoothly. This helps the logistics chain in the economy and gives a boost to the economy. These are two examples of where government spending is helpful and supportive of low interest rates. To offset a recession there has been some suggestion of Germany spending €50 Billion on infrastructure spending. As a comparison, Spain already is spending more than it gets in on taxes.

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for setting interest rates in the UK. It has said that due to the Brexit uncertainty, the next UK interest rate move is likely to be down. The UK official interest rate is only 0.5% now, which gives an indication of the outlook for interest rates: near zero for a long time.

JP Morgan is the sixth largest bank in the World with assets of $2.73 TRILLION. Bob Michele, Global Head of Fixed Income at JP Morgan, has gone even further than the Bank of England in predicting the European interest rates. His analysis shows that Europe will have negative interest rates for the next eight years. Mario Draghi has also said that European economic growth will be very low for seven years, which is another indicator for low interest rates. Indeed for both the UK and the EU there are many forecasts of very long term, low interest rates.

On the bright side, borrowing costs are much reduced as a result of low interest rates. Monthly mortgage payments are much smaller than normal. Businesses and Governments can borrow at much lower rates. On the dark side, we get little, or indeed no, interest on our savings. How low can interest rates go? Rates are negative in Switzerland and Denmark for people living outside the country. These non resident account holders actually have to pay the bank to take their money. When interest rates on savings are very, very low, what do we do with our savings?

If we have savings should we consider paying off our mortgage? Mortgage rates in Spain around 1.63% fixed for 20 years (via Spectrum Mortgage Services, email me if you require details). It can be better to invest than pay off a mortgage at this rate. If we have other loans you should look to pay off the loan from savings if the interest rate

property investment Barcelona

on the loan is greater than you can achieve by investing. A good benchmark figure to use is if the loan rate is greater than 5% per annum you should consider paying it off from savings.

Despite these low rates it is essential that we keep some money readily available, probably in a bank, as an emergency fund. Yet, with these historically low interest rates, it is also essential we do not leave more than we need in the bank. Inflation, even low inflation, eats into the buying power of money left in the bank. It is an insidious effect we often don’t notice until we come to buy our next big purchase. It is at this point we realise that we can’t buy what we thought we could buy because we have had interest on our savings that was smaller than the rate of inflation. When this happens, buying power falls. Instead of being able to buy the sports version of a car we find we can only afford the base model.

We need to use other types of savings and investing strategies during times like these. There are many other options, but most alternatives come with some investment risk. What does investment risk look like?

You may not have realised, but since the market collapsed in 2009 there have been corrections of -16.0%, -19.4%, -12.4%, -13.3%, and -10.2% in the S&P 500!

What is the investment return on the S&P 500 since bank interest rates hit their lows in 2009? INCLUDING the falls above, it may surprise you that the return has been 219%.

This is just one index based on shares in one country and is used to highlight volatility in a market. To reduce the impact of this volatility our savings should be in diversified pots. A fair question for you to ask me is “With these low interest rates, what pots do you invest in?” The answer is I have a mix. I have some very steady, some

stock-exchange

would say old fashioned, funds. Others are with a mix of investments managed by a fund manager, including some investments in the S&P 500. I have some UK Premium Bonds for my emergency fund as they are easily accessible. I have income producing investments in my pension. Index linked funds give me some protection against inflation (just in case we get an unexpected event). I have some forward looking funds that invest in India and China. And then… well I have three small holdings in UK private companies making new technologies and an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics.

There is diversity across types of investments, e.g. shares, funds, regions and bonds. Within the higher risk parts there is balancing of risk. The three individual shareholdings in tech companies are very high risk because the value of the shares in each company depends on the results of that company alone. Balance is provided because the ETF performance which depends on the 41 companies it tracks. If one company does badly, there are 40 others to take up the slack. It was sensible for me to diversify from an investment being dependent on the results of one company, to something which is dependent on the results of 41 companies. Especially as I am not a researcher in the fields of AI and robotics.

This is my mix of investments, but it may not be right for you depending on what return you want and how much risk you are prepared to take. Do I also choose superb investments and do these investments avoid market falls? I admit it, no they don’t. But my diversification does.

Tax is also relevant to the good husbandry of your savings at all times, not just when rates are low. With money in the bank and interest rates so low, it is not much more than adding insult to injury when the taxman takes 19% to 21% of your interest. However, it is important that having moved your savings from a bank account you make the investment tax efficient. How to do this will depend upon your situation and requires individual advice.

This brief note gives an example of what we need to do now as we are faced with low interest rates for a long period. What is right for you will depend on your circumstances. Is it worth taking some risk? Yes, especially if you use several different types of investments; investments in different types of assets and different geographical areas. Putting your savings in different pots can help to reduce the investment risk.

As is often the case, what looks like a disadvantage, the low interest rates, means opportunities appear elsewhere!

How to invest -The Importance of Diversification

By Emeka Ajogbe - Topics: Belgium, Investment Risk, Investments
This article is published on: 19th August 2019

19.08.19

There’s an old adage “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”. I think about this every time I speak to a client about their portfolio. Often people wish to put their money into something familiar, like property. I remember in the early days of my career, I sat down with a property developer who had everything he had in his property portfolio of over a dozen properties, and all of his properties were in the same area of London. When I suggested that he needed to diversify because he was over exposed to the property market, he said that he had; that all the properties were not on the same road. When I checked the property addresses later, I realised that he was right, they weren’t. However, they were within ten minutes of each other!

This client had embarked upon a risky investment strategy as he was familiar with the asset class. Whilst he was having success with the returns, a sharp decline in the property market, particularly in the London area (which is what happened not too long after we spoke), would mean he would run into major financial difficulties. Enter, diversification.

Diversification is an investment strategy that reduces the risk that an investor is exposed to by allocating their funds into different financial instruments, industries, geographical areas and other categories. It aims to maximise returns by investing in different areas that would each react differently to the same occurrence.

Although it does not guarantee against investment loss, diversification is an important part of reaching long financial goals whilst minimising risk.

WHY SHOULD YOU DIVERSIFY
Let’s say, for example, that you are invested entirely in pharmaceuticals. It is announced one day that there will be a heavy levy against the pricing of drugs, which affects the costs that pharmaceuticals can spend on research and development. This would negatively affect the pharmaceutical industry, prices would fall and there would be a noticeable drop in the value of your portfolio.

However, suppose you have some of your portfolio invested in, say, technology. Strong performance in this industry, such as developments in cloud storage, could see the performance counteract the negative effects of the pharmaceutical industry on your portfolio. Even this small amount of diversification could protect the performance of your portfolio and ensure that all your eggs are not in one basket.

It therefore stands to reason that you would want to diversify as much as is feasible, while respecting your risk profile; across different industries, across different companies, across different asset classes. This will greatly reduce your portfolio’s sensitivity to market swings.

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION
It pays to go global. As you can see in the table below, having funds spread across different locations can give you access to the best performing asset classes each and every year. One asset class can be the best one year, but is not necessarily top again the following year.

investment diversification

Diversification also means ensuring that your overall portfolio has exposure to various different investment styles. Some shares, known as growth shares, are held by investors as their value is expected to grow significantly over the long term. Others, known as value shares, are held because they are regarded as cheaper than the inherent worth of the companies which they represent. Value shares and growth shares can react differently in different economic environments.

Whilst it is possible in theory, in practice having a perfect balance between assets, sectors, markets and companies to suit an investment objective or risk profile is extremely difficult. However, the diversification qualities of collective investments schemes, along with the option of investing into multi asset funds can present the investor with a sound, individually tailored diversification solution.

At Spectrum, we favour the multi-asset approach to investing for our clients. These investment vehicles allow our clients access to multiple funds, asset classes and locations through a single fund that is managed and monitored by dedicated specialists and experts on the investor’s behalf. This type of fund can increase the potential for diversification and reduce the level of risk.

For more information on how understanding diversification can help you grow your wealth, please contact me either by email emeka.ajogbe@spectrum-ifa.com or phone: +32 494 90 71 72.

Hot investments: It’s time to get creative

By Chris Burke - Topics: Barcelona, Investment Risk, Investments, Spain
This article is published on: 18th June 2019

18.06.19

Investing needs savvy, like a game of chess. It’s best to make carefully thought through moves so that it’s not left to chance. The most crucial part of investing is being in the know.

As a financial advisor, this is something I research and stay on top of so that I can best inform clients. And I only recommend what investments I would feel confident investing in myself. That is very important for clients to know.

When it comes to the stock market, it’s about knowledge and catching the wave at the best time. Right now in the world of investment it’s prime time for investing in some promising and exciting creative industries, namely the e-sports /online gaming industry and AI (Artificial Intelligence).

As we all know, the internet, Amazon and Netflix have totally changed the entertainment industry. We are no longer controlled by which shows are on television or in the cinemas, as we now have the luxury of watching whatever we want whenever we want. But perhaps the most massive surprise in the past year has been the overwhelming popularity of esports – which is simply fans watching professional video gamers compete online. Ever heard of Twitch? Well, there are more people logging on to watch pros gamers competing on streaming sites like Twitch than there are watching CNN or NBC.

Last autumn, a shocking 57 million people tuned in to watch a professional video-gaming (esports) match. It was triple the audience of the actual 2018 NBA finals. As a result of this success, the biggest companies including Coca-Cola and T-Mobile have spent hundreds of millions to sponsor these matches.

So, as e-sports and gaming continue to conquer all, which types of companies might be good to get in on? The top gaming companies you might want to consider investing with are Nintendo, Valve Corporation, Rockstar Games, Electronic Arts, Sony Computer Entertainment, Ubisoft or Sega Games Co. Ltd.

investments in games company

And behind every great game is the hardware required to make it fanstastic. NVDA might not be a name you’ve heard, but literally all video games require ultra-high-performance chips and NVDA chips are the crème de la crème, used by over 85% of professional gamers.

(Forbes, 2018)

The ever-growing world of AI (Artificial Intelligence) has been booming and helping companies solve and manage many previous b2b and b2c issues and right now France is aiming to be one of the forerunners in the industry. Last year President Macron announced his government was investing €1.8 billion over 4 year period. A few of the top French AI start-ups are insurance fraud detection companies like Shift Technology; the AI voice assistance platform, Snips, which manufacturers can utilise for their products and Saagie, the online protection platform to store and guard our precious data for banks and insurance companies.

So, there are some exciting and creative opportunities for investment out there but as a financial advisor, when it comes to investment portfolios research and timing are crucial, as is ensuring clients are in a financial position where they able to play the market without the fear of losing their life’s savings.

Before considering any investments, I always start by advising clients to ensure they have sufficient funds they can access quickly and easily and then discuss what length of time they would like to invest other sums for, as it’s my first priority to nurture and protect their financial future. I would not recommend any client to invest in something that I would not invest in myself, but each client is well-informed in the knowledge that if they have the money to try their hand at investing, it is of course a risk. But it’s a risk that can be rewarding and a real learning experience as well.

Understanding How Risk Affects Your Portfolio

By Emeka Ajogbe - Topics: Belgium, Investment Risk, Investments, wealth management
This article is published on: 11th June 2019

11.06.19

A crucial step to achieving long term financial security is recognising the importance of (and the relationship between) investment risk and return. In practice, this means implementing an investment strategy which matches your personal objectives and risk profile.

When I am speaking to clients about investing for the first time, they generally fall into two categories:

  • The Risk Averse
  • The Not So Risk Averse

Normally, within the first two to three years, one category changes their mind and changes to the other. Can you guess which one?

If you replied the risk averse becoming the not so risk averse, you would be right. This usually stems from clients becoming more comfortable with the idea of investing and the fact that taking risk can, when understood and applied properly, have a staggeringly positive effect on your portfolio.

There are many different reasons as to why people invest and no two people will have exactly the same objectives. Risk is a necessary and constant feature of investing – share prices fall, economic and political conditions fluctuate and companies can become insolvent. Therefore, understanding your risk profile is an important consideration before you actually invest.

Your risk profile is the relationship between your investment objective, risk tolerance and capacity for loss. As a result, you should be aware of your ability and willingness to accept risk and what level of risk might be required to meet your investment goals.

Investment profiles broadly fall into one of the following three categories:

Low Risk Profile
People with a low risk profile wish to preserve their capital and understand that there is very little scope for significant capital growth. These portfolios are heavily weighted to investing in cash and bonds.

Medium Risk Profile
People with a medium risk profile understand that to achieve long term capital growth, some degree of investment risk is necessary. Portfolios for this category of investor are usually balanced between cash, bonds and shares (equities)/equity funds, with perhaps some exposure to property as well.

High Risk Profile
People with a high risk profile are those who are prepared to accept the possibilty of a significant drop in their portfolio values in order to maximise long term investment returns. Higher risk portfolios have a far greater weighting towards equities/equity funds and less exposure to bonds and cash.

Different kinds of investment carry different levels of risk:

Cash
Cash or savings accounts are often regarded as ‘low risk’, yet, as the credit crisis of 2007 – 2008 showed, they are not ‘risk free’. Inflation will also reduce the value of cash savings if it is higher than the rate of interest being earned. At the time of writing, inflation in Belgium is just above 2% and the interest rate is 0%, which means that you are effectively paying your bank to hold your cash savings.

Bonds
Bonds or fixed interest securities are popular with many investors. If you invest in these instruments, you are essentially lending money to the issuer of the bond; usually a company or a government. In return, the issuer pays interest at regular intervals until the maturity date. The obvious benefit to the investor is regular income. However, there is a risk that the issuer may not be able to maintain interest payments and the capital value of the bond can fluctuate.

Shares
Although past performance is not a guide to future returns, historically the best long term investment performance is produced by equities or equity funds. The increased level of risk associated with equities is directly linked to the higher returns typically available from this type of asset.

The price of a company’s shares trading on a stock market is a reflection of the company’s value as influenced by the demand (or lack thereof) from investors. Essentially, when you invest in a company you are buying part of that company and hence able to share in its profits. The converse is also true, so you could be exposed to operating losses and a fall in the company’s share price. The risks, therefore, can be high, especially if you own shares in only one or a handful of companies. Equity funds, run by professional managers and which usually invest in a range of companies, are a means of avoiding such concentrated risk.

TYPES OF INVESTMENT RISKS

There are several types of investment risk that the you can be exposed to if and when you decide to invest, and you should be aware of the possible effect on your portfolio before you start:

Market Risk
Also known as systematic risk, it means that the overall performance of financial markets directly affects the returns from specific shares/equites. Therefore, the value of your shares may go up or down in response to changes in market conditions. The underlying reason for a change in market direction might include a political event, such as Brexit, government policy (consider current US-China trade tensions) or a natural disaster.

Unsystematic Risk
This refers to the uncertainty in a company or industry investment, and unlike market risk, unsystematic risk applies to only a small number of assets. For example, a change in management, an organisation making a product recall, a change in regulation that could negatively affect a organisation’s sales, or even a newcomer to market with the ability to take away market share from the organisation you are investing in.

Systemic Risk
This is the possibility that an event at company level has the potential to cause severe instability or collapse to an entire industry of economy. It was a major contributor to the financial crisis of 2007 – 2008. Think back and you will remember the phrase that Company X ‘was too big to fail’. If it collapsed, then other companies in the industry, or the economy itself, could fail too.

Currency Risk
Investment options include shares/equities in a range of currencies. Changes in exchange rates can result in unpredictable gains and losses when foreign investments are converted from the foreign currency back into your base currency, from US dollars into Euros for example.

Portfolio Construction Risk
This is the possibility that, in constructing a portfolio, you have an inappropriate income/growth split, or that you fail to monitor and manage the portfolio in line with your investment objectives. There is also a risk that you select assets that are inconsistent with your risk profile.

Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is the possibility that an investment held will decline in value as a direct result of changes in interest rates. For example, bond prices are usually negatively affected by interest rate rises.

Concentration Risk
This is the possibility that you over-invest in a particular asset, sector, industry or region, which removes valuable diversifaction from your portfolio.

Opportunity Risk
This is the risk of being ‘under-exposed’ to other types of investments that could potentially deliver better returns.

Whether you are investing on a regular basis or have invested a lump sum, it is imperative to understand how risk, or your attitude to risk, can fundamentally affect the potential growth of your investment.

Whatever will be, will be

By Dennis Radford - Topics: BREXIT, Costa Blanca, Investments, Spain
This article is published on: 3rd June 2019

03.06.19

It was announced last week that Doris Day had passed. She died on May 13, 2019, at the age of 97, after having contracted pneumonia. Doris Mary Kappelhoff was born on April 3, 1922. Just imagine the changes Miss Day witnessed during her lifetime.

Don’t waste your time trying to second guess.
Whilst the ongoing saga of Brexit and the numerous delays can be frustrating, we really should make the best of the additional time this gives us.

Do you remember the panic across the Expatriate community on the initial Brexit announcement?

  • You must ensure you residency application is processed in time!
  • You must ensure your Social Security and Health Care are in place!
  • You must change your driving license!

We are likely to have until 31st October 2019 before we leave the EU, which means you have additional time to put these things in place.

There are, of course, other areas where we may want to use the extra time positively.

Did you know?
In the 2017 Spring Budget, HMRC announced a new 25% charge on overseas pension transfers. Most expats living in Spain were unconcerned by this as it did not apply to pension transfers within the EU.

This is likely to change post Brexit. It is widely thought that HMRC in the UK will apply this 25% charge to your pension transfer post Brexit.

Use this time wisely. If transferring your pension is suitable for your situation, you should act now and save the charge being applied to your pension.

Since the day David Cameron, the then Prime Minister, announced that there would be a referendum on the UK´s membership of the EU, people have been fearful due to the uncertainty as to what will happen post Brexit.

In the last three years, life has continued in the financial world and investment markets have risen significantly. At the same time, inflation hasn´t disappeared just because Brexit is on the menu.

With dividends reinvested, £100,000 would be worth around £136,000 as at 18th February 2019. If we allow for inflation, this would be more like £128,000 but still 28% up. If the £100,000 had been left in a bank account, with no interest, which is commonplace these days, the true value would now be more like £91,000. Waiting for Brexit has cost the wait and see person £9,000.

Brexit proof your investments using top UK financial institutions
If you are living in France, Spain, Luxembourg or Belgium, did you know that certain large, household name UK financial institutions offer products locally from
Dublin based sister organisations?

These products are both EU regulated and tax efficient in the country where you live.
For example, one of the largest Insurance companies in the UK offers a fully French compliant (Dublin based) Assurance Vie. Another offers a Branch 23 product, which is tax efficient in Belgium. Both companies offer a tax efficient solution for Spanish residents.

As a result, should the UK leave the EU, you can still invest with companies whose names you know and trust, in a tax efficient manner, in the country you call home.

Please feel free to contact me if you would like to discuss any of these points in more detail.

We need to talk about China…

By Gareth Horsfall - Topics: Investments, Italy
This article is published on: 17th May 2019

17.05.19
  • There are more Christians in China than Italy and the Vatican combined
  • By 2030, China will add more new city-dwellers than the entire U.S. population
  • By 2025, China will build enough skyscrapers to fill TEN New York-sized cities
  • America’s fastest “high speed” train goes less than half as fast as the new train between Shanghai and Beijing (150 mph vs. 302 mph)
  • China has more pigs than the next 43 pork producing countries combined
  • China’s economy grew 7 times faster than America’s over the past decade (316% vs. 43%)

If you hadn’t already guessed, this article is about the economic powerhouse: China. Listed above are some interesting facts just to whet your appetite. However, given the current market turmoil surrounding Donald Trump and his China tariffs, I thought it would be a good idea to clear up some of the myths surrounding China, with the help of our friends at Blackrock Asset Management.

5 Myths about China’s economy

Economic growth is unsustainable

There is still lots of room for growth
The Chinese economy has been growing quickly for more than 20 years, and hit a peak of 14% in 2007, according to the World Bank. But things have started to slow in the last few years. Growth cannot continue indefinitely and China does have a problem with high levels of personal, corporate and government debt. However, even at today’s slower pace of growth at approximately 6% per annum, China will continue to grow more than twice as fast as many developed economies. China has seen growth of 6-10% over the past 7 years. Even a basic level of growth is enough for the financial markets to grow and for domestic reforms to be pushed through.

High debt means that China is high risk

China is actually reducing debt at a good pace
Many Chinese companies hold a great deal of debt and Chinese corporate debt has reached 165% of GDP, according to an IMF report. (Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden have higher corporate debt to GDP ratios!)

The Chinese government is serious about addressing the high levels of debt and has signalled that corporate debt restructuring is now high on the agenda. Whilst this is a positive move for the economy it causes investors to worry about whether the Chinese authorities will be able to engineer a soft landing. Policymakers have been practical in their approach to reducing debt by making structural changes on one front but also ensuring that there is sufficient liquidity to avoid any stress. It sounds like good financial planning to me. Pay down your debt but maintain a good cash level in case of emergencies.

China also has a very high level of personal (retail) investors in its financial markets, and with such a high percentage the Chinese government is more likely than most governments to intervene should there be any danger of sharp falls in equity markets. Economic hardship can trigger social unrest, and the Chinese authorities do not like civil unrest!

Increased protectionism in the US will hit China hard

Despite what Donald Trump would like to make us believe China is an increasingly important player in global trade
The US-China relationship and some kind of trade war seem inevitable especially under the Donald Trump regime. This will affect international markets, without a doubt. However, despite all the noise over tariffs, the ambitious Belt & Road initiative is still in progress. This is China’s way of boosting trade and stimulating economic growth across Asia by building a massive amount of infrastructure to connect it to other countries. In addition, the US has walked away from the Transatlantic Trade Partnership and this offers China the chance to play an even bigger role in terms of trade integration in the region. This basically means that whilst America is battening down the hatches, China is opening itself up, making more allies and expanding its global reach of power.

BlackRock believes that trade tensions between the US and China will continue for a further period but does not think it will escalate into a full-blown trade war, although it does remain a risk.

It is difficult to get accurate economic data about China

There are more ways than one to skin a cat, so are there more ways than one of digging for money
Investors worry about the accuracy of economic data that comes out of China. This is where technology can come to our aid in the guise of satellite imagery. It can provide an alternative source of up-to-date information. For example, it is possible to form a picture of the ‘metalness’ on the ground as a way to measure the number of new factories being built, or existing ones expanded. This information helps to verify the data from the Chinese government. It is also much faster than relying on quarterly valuations.

Surprisingly, this information is so detailed that the economic activity of individual companies can be compared. Big Brother is watching you!

China has a liquidity problem

The tide may be beginning to turn
The inclusion of China in the Emerging Markets financial Indices is already starting to see more funds flowing into China. Going forward, more Chinese shares are likely to be added to the indices, driving even more money into the region.

China already makes up 32.7% of the Emerging Markets Index and will continue to take a larger proportion as China continues to deregulate its capital markets and make them more accessible to foreigners. If China achieved full market inclusion in the Emerging Markets Index, it would account for 50% of the total index of ALL emerging markets and it could eventually account for 30% of the emerging markets bond indices.

The strength of the US dollar together with the extended period of quantitative easing has held money in the US, but that trend is now changing with funds starting to flow back into Asia from the second half of 2017.

There is also a forthcoming Stock Connect scheme, linking the Shanghai and London Stock Exchanges, which will also give foreign investors greater and easier access to the shares of companies listed in mainland China.

All these developments, together with the broader structural reforms being carried out within China, may increase liquidity and as these five myths are debunked, the Chinese stock market may start to get the increased international attention it deserves.

As a client of The Spectrum IFA Group, China and other emerging markets will make up a proportion of your portfolio. Whilst the financial markets are highly volatile, the growth of investment is higher than in other developed markets. Yet, it is not a question of whether you should invest in volatile financial markets or not, but more the question of how much you should allocate to them based on your own personal circumstances and attitude to risk.

The asset managers we work with take care of those decisions on your behalf, so you don’t have to.

Do you know if you are overpaying Spanish tax?

By John Hayward - Topics: Investments, Spain, Tax Relief, tax tips
This article is published on: 9th May 2019

09.05.19

Thousands of Spanish residents could be overpaying tax due to their lack of knowledge of the most tax efficient way to hold savings. People overpay income tax, savings tax, capital gains tax, and even inheritance tax, because they are holding their money in inappropriate savings and investment accounts. However, there are often simple solutions to what seem like complex problems. With the correct professional advice from people experienced in Spanish financial matters, savers could see more income and pay less tax.

Often, residents of Spain will turn to their bank to give them advice on what accounts and investment vehicles are best suited to them. The choice in Spanish banks is limited and the risks are often not explained. Many people are stuck in what they thought were deposit accounts, when in fact they are investments, the performance of which could be based on stockmarkets.

There are also those who hold “tax free” savings in the UK, such as ISAs, National Savings Certificates and Premium Bonds. All of these are NOT TAX FREE IN SPAIN. For Premium Bonds especially, there appears to be better returns, when compared to most other options which are paying close to zero interest. However, any interest or gain is taxable in Spain and needs to be declared.

A solution is to have money outside Spain but recognised by Spain for preferential tax treatment.

A COMPLIANT ACCOUNT AND NO WITHDRAWALS MEANS NO TAX DUE
In this example, €200,000 was invested in 2016 and the accountholder had no other savings income.

With a non-compliant account, tax must be paid each year on the growth of the account, totalling €6,260 over the 3 years. With the Spanish compliant account, if no withdrawals are taken, no tax is immediately due on the annual growth of the account.

*Click the image above to enlarge

AND IF WITHDRAWALS ARE MADE?
Again €200,000 is invested and the accountholder has no other savings income. This time the policy grows by €10,000 each year, and the accountholder withdraws this amount. With a non-compliant account tax payable is based on the full growth of the account, whatever amount is withdrawn. For a compliant account, tax is only due on the gain attached to the withdrawal.

*Click the image above to enlarge

That´s a 91% tax saving over 3 years!

To find out more about how you could benefit from quality financial planning advice and years of experience both in Spain and the UK, contact me today on +34 618 204 731 or at john.hayward@spectrum-ifa.com

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