The Brexit or Invoking the Law of Unintended Consequence.
Since the Brexit vote most news has been about potential Trade deals, and Sterling’s fall. However it perhaps has gone unnoticed, that from a variety of differing scenarios with outcomes by no means certain, a Constitutional crisis could be gathering steam.
It all stems back to the European Referendum Act 2015, that didn’t consider the variety of outcomes and was legally non binding. In addition, the power of the Royal Prerogative that was curbed when King John signed the Magna Carta in 1215 is being used by the Government, and in essence his successor Theresa May, to make or break treaties with other countries including the EU, in this case invoking Article 50 without the need for it to be passed into law via an Act of Parliament.
Critics of this say that the 1972 Act (based on the UK joining the Common Market) ceded power from the UK Parliament and allowed EU law to pass into UK law. This gave the British people protection under a new constitution based on EU law (based on Napoleonic Law). The UK has never had a written constitution that protects it citizens and gives them certain rights. It is being argued by a variety of bodies via legal challenges against the PM for using the Royal Prerogative to take away rights bestowed to Parliament. Some go as far to say “enforced removal” of citizenship rights from 65 million people would be “completely unprecedented “in modern democracy. Expat campaigners are also arguing that the “rights enjoyed by British citizens beyond these shores are so fundamental that legislation is required to take them away”.
The legal challenge has been mounted to the process of withdrawing the UK from the EU without a vote in Parliament and is going to the High Court, to be heard within the next two weeks. If the government lose due to Judges imposing their will (note unelected!), it would then be ironic for this eventually being heard by the European Court of Justice, the UK’s next step .
If the UK government win this current legal challenge on the basis “ Respecting the outcome of the referendum and giving effect to the will and the decision of the people “, that too could lead to further challenges for whom the right to vote was taken away i.e. a large percentage of Ex Pats and those Europeans citizens in the UK.
Additionally, working on that basis could give credence to Scottish Independence should they have a 2nd referendum and vote to remain in Europe. The same could be said of Northern Ireland, which has its own Parliament as well, and perhaps even Gibraltarians, as they overwhelmingly voted to remain.
The other major crisis in the making is the “Great Repeal Bill” debate that is due to be put to the House next year. A number of scenarios could occur. Many M.P.’s supported remain and the government still has deep divisions within its ranks. With only a majority of 10 seats in the House, a loss could force a vote of confidence, an early election, and a greatly disenchanted and potentially a disenfranchised electorate that voted to leave.
If they win then it passes to the House of Lords, who overwhelmingly wished to remain in the EU, and should they vote against it, take note Leave campaigners, an unelected body voting against the wishes of the majority!!
The Law of Unintended Consequence reigns supreme, or quite simply chaos. It makes Spain’s recent political turmoil insignificant, and I wonder how many of those that voted to leave or indeed did not vote at all, would have wanted these potential outcomes.
What would be even more ironic would be that the UK Government, in its current format, with many of the Ministers that supported the Leave campaign in positions of power, having to go to the European Court of Justice to overrule either singularly or both the UK Judges or the House of Lords to push through the Brexit, whilst at the same time preside over the breakup of the Union.